Interval Elicitation of Forecasts in a Prediction Market Reveals Lack of Anchoring "Bias"

DAGGRE was part of a program that began in 2010 as a multi-team forecasting challenge sponsored by IARPA. To harness the “wisdom of crowds”, researchers built an online combinatorial prediction market for predicting events of interest to the U.S. intelligence community. Prediction markets have a long history (See Rhode & Stumpf, 2004.), and their value is described at length by Surowiecki (2004). The DAGGRE market possessed an interface to allow users to input probability judgments directly.